Vitoria 0–0 Sestao River: Result & Stats

Vitoria

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sestao River

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Campo Ellakuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria38%

×Draw27%

Sestao River35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchSestao River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.24

Vitoria

1.29

Sestao River

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

1.55

creates per match

1.75

0.73

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Vitoria

1.55

Sestao River

1.75

allows per match

Vitoria

0.73

Sestao River

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Sestao River →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

65%

Vitoria or Sestao River

73%

Draw or Sestao River

62%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

17%

Sestao River wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

72%

Vitoria 2+ goals

37%

Vitoria 3+ goals

14%

Sestao River 1+ goals

71%

Sestao River 2+ goals

35%

Sestao River 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

52%

Sestao River (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria scores more

38%

level

27%

Sestao River scores more

35%

Vitoria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff