Vitoria 1–3 Sao Bento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vitoria

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sao Bento

Felipe Gonçalves 37'

Régis 90+5'

Fábio Bahia 79'

Elton 55'

5/18/2019

Serie B · Round 4Estadio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vitoria46%

×Draw28%

Sao Bento25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchSao Bento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.89

Vitoria

1.31

Sao Bento

0.89

Vitoria creates 47% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 33 away

1.21

creates per match

1.12

0.66

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Vitoria

1.21

Sao Bento

1.12

allows per match

Vitoria

0.66

Sao Bento

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Sao Bento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Sao Bento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

75%

Vitoria or Sao Bento

72%

Draw or Sao Bento

54%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

22%

Sao Bento wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

73%

Vitoria 2+ goals

38%

Vitoria 3+ goals

14%

Sao Bento 1+ goals

59%

Sao Bento 2+ goals

22%

Sao Bento 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

65%

Sao Bento (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 58 matches

Sao Bento away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.21 + Sao Bento defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sao Bento attack 1.12 + Vitoria defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vitoria scores more

46%

level

28%

Sao Bento scores more

25%

Vitoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Régis

Sao Bento · M

8.2

Match Events

35'

Paulo Vitor

37'

Felipe Gonçalves↳ Nickson

46'

Fernandes← Paulinho

54'

Cafu← Pablo

55'

Elton↳ Régis

65'

Anselmo Ramon← Neto Baiano

67'

Doriva← Minho

70'

Matheus← Nickson

79'

79'

81'

81'

82'

86'

86'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaSao

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots15

8Corners7

13Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots15

6On Target9

8Off Target5

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

445Total Passes241

385Accurate Passes179

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4