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Vitoria vs Santurtzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santurtzi
Santurtzi
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Campo Ellakuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Vitoria52%
×Draw26%
Santurtzi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.50
Santurtzi
0.85

Vitoria creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.55
Santurtzi
0.97

allows per match

Vitoria
0.73
Santurtzi
1.45

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Santurtzi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Santurtzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
79%
Vitoria or Santurtzi
74%
Draw or Santurtzi
48%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
27%
Santurtzi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
78%
Vitoria 2+ goals
44%
Vitoria 3+ goals
19%
Santurtzi 1+ goals
57%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
21%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
71%
Santurtzi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Santurtzi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Santurtzi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santurtzi attack 0.97 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitoria scores more
52%
level
26%
Santurtzi scores more
21%

Vitoria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Santurtzi

Vitoria beat Santurtzi 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Ellakuri in Laudio.