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Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Campo Ellakuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vitoria45%
×Draw25%
Real Sociedad III29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.54
Real Sociedad III
1.19

Vitoria creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.55
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Vitoria
0.73
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
71%
Vitoria or Real Sociedad III
75%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
55%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
23%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
79%
Vitoria 2+ goals
45%
Vitoria 3+ goals
20%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
70%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
33%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
61%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitoria scores more
45%
level
25%
Real Sociedad III scores more
29%

Vitoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Vitoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Ellakuri in Laudio.