Vitoria 3–0 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vitoria

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ituano

Camutanga 77'

S. Tréllez 45+2'

Rodrigo Andrade 31'

6/3/2023

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vitoria49%

×Draw28%

Ituano22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.81

Vitoria

1.35

Ituano

0.81

Vitoria creates 67% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

1.21

creates per match

0.96

0.66

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Vitoria

1.21

Ituano

0.96

allows per match

Vitoria

0.66

Ituano

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

78%

Vitoria or Ituano

72%

Draw or Ituano

51%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

24%

Ituano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

74%

Vitoria 2+ goals

39%

Vitoria 3+ goals

15%

Ituano 1+ goals

56%

Ituano 2+ goals

19%

Ituano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

69%

Ituano (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 58 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.21 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ituano attack 0.96 + Vitoria defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vitoria scores more

49%

level

28%

Ituano scores more

22%

Vitoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Camutanga

Vitoria · D

8.7

Match Events

24'

31'

41'

41'

45+9'

45+2'

S. Tréllez↳ Camutanga

46'

Richard← Mário Sérgio

52'

Jose HugoGoal Disallowed - offside

61'

62'

Rafael Carvalheira← Eduardo Person

62'

José Aldo← Marthã

68'

Railan← José Hugo

74'

Rodrigo Andrade

77'

Camutanga↳ Wellington Nem

82'

Felipe Vieira← Marcelo

82'

Matheus Aluísio← Iury

82'

Felipe Santos← Felipe Saraiva

83'

Diego Fumaça← Rodrigo Andrade

88'

Zeca

88'

Gegê← Marco Antônio

88'

Pablo Diogo← Zeca

90+3'

Paulo Victor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaItuano

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots12

6Corners1

18Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target3

7Off Target5

5Blocked4

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

260Total Passes336

195Accurate Passes256

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0