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Vitoria vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derio
Derio
4/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Vitoria47%
×Draw27%
Derio25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.39
Derio
0.94

Vitoria creates 48% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 53 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.55
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Vitoria
0.73
Derio
1.23

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
75%
Vitoria or Derio
73%
Draw or Derio
53%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
23%
Derio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
75%
Vitoria 2+ goals
40%
Vitoria 3+ goals
16%
Derio 1+ goals
61%
Derio 2+ goals
24%
Derio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
65%
Derio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Derio attack 1.15 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vitoria scores more
47%
level
27%
Derio scores more
25%

Vitoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vitoria 2 – 0 Derio

Vitoria beat Derio 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.