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Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
10/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vitoria52%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés III21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.48
Deportivo Alavés III
0.83

Vitoria creates 78% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.55
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Vitoria
0.73
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
79%
Vitoria or Deportivo Alavés III
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
48%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
77%
Vitoria 2+ goals
43%
Vitoria 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitoria scores more
52%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
21%

Vitoria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vitoria 3 – 0 Deportivo Alavés III

Vitoria beat Deportivo Alavés III 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo de Unbe Inferior in Eibar.