Vitoria 1–0 CRB: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vitoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CRB

Wagner Leonardo 90+6'

5/24/2023

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Vitoria49%

×Draw29%

CRB22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchCRB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.78

Vitoria

1.32

CRB

0.78

Vitoria creates 69% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 138 away

1.21

creates per match

0.89

0.66

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Vitoria

1.21

CRB

0.89

allows per match

Vitoria

0.66

CRB

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

CRB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

78%

Vitoria or CRB

71%

Draw or CRB

51%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

23%

CRB wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

73%

Vitoria 2+ goals

38%

Vitoria 3+ goals

15%

CRB 1+ goals

54%

CRB 2+ goals

18%

CRB 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

69%

CRB (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 58 matches

CRB away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.43 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.21 + CRB defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

CRB attack 0.89 + Vitoria defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vitoria scores more

49%

level

29%

CRB scores more

22%

Vitoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Wagner Leonardo

Vitoria · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

Anderson Leite

45+4'

Edimar

46'

João Victor← Camutanga

46'

Felipe Vieira← Marcelo

49'

Matheus Ribeiro

56'

J. Copete← Rômulo

58'

Saimon

60'

Wellington Nem← Rafinha

64'

Juninho Valoura← Anderson Leite

64'

Gum← Saimon

74'

S. Tréllez← Léo Gamalho

76'

77'

81'

87'

87'

Everson← Anselmo Ramon

90+6'

Wagner Leonardo↳ Osvaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitoriaCRB

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots12

9Corners5

11Fouls20

Shots

20Total Shots12

3On Target5

12Off Target6

5Blocked1

13Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

458Total Passes325

381Accurate Passes242

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls20

0Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Vitoria vs CRB

Vitoria beat CRB 1-0 in Serie B on May 24, 2023.

Goals: Wagner Leonardo (90+6').

Vitoria controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador, Bahia.

Vitoria vs CRB — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vitoria vs CRB