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Vitoria vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
1/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Instalaciones de Unbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vitoria53%
×Draw27%
Amurrio Club20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.44
Amurrio Club
0.78

Vitoria creates 85% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vitoria
1.55
Amurrio Club
0.84

allows per match

Vitoria
0.73
Amurrio Club
1.32

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Amurrio Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
80%
Vitoria or Amurrio Club
73%
Draw or Amurrio Club
47%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
26%
Amurrio Club wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
76%
Vitoria 2+ goals
42%
Vitoria 3+ goals
18%
Amurrio Club 1+ goals
54%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
18%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
72%
Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vitoria scores more
53%
level
27%
Amurrio Club scores more
20%

Vitoria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Amurrio Club

Vitoria and Amurrio Club drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 8, 2022.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Unbe in Eibar.