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Vitória U20 vs Ypiranga BA U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Vitória U20
Vitória U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ypiranga BA U20
Ypiranga BA U20
7/12/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · Round of 16CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vitória U2070%
×Draw18%
Ypiranga BA U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória U20
2.25
Ypiranga BA U20
0.79

Vitória U20 creates 185% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vitória U20
2.80
Ypiranga BA U20
0.86

allows per match

Vitória U20
0.72
Ypiranga BA U20
1.71

finishing

Vitória U20+0.00on par
Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vitória U20 or draw
88%
Vitória U20 or Ypiranga BA U20
82%
Draw or Ypiranga BA U20
30%

Winning margin

Vitória U20 wins by 2+
46%
Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vitória U20 1+ goals
89%
Vitória U20 2+ goals
65%
Vitória U20 3+ goals
39%
Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals
55%
Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals
19%
Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vitória U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória U20 attack 2.80 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Vitória U20 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vitória U20 scores more
70%
level
18%
Ypiranga BA U20 scores more
12%

Vitória U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vitória U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Vitória U20 1–1 Ypiranga BA U20

Vitória U20 and Ypiranga BA U20 drew 1-1 in Baiano U20 on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura in Salvador, Bahia.