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Vitória U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Brasileiro U20 B 2025

Vitória U20
Vitória U20advanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Unknown 76', 62'
5/21/2025Brasileiro U20 BBrasileiro U20 B · Quarter-finalsCT Manoel Pontes Tanajura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vitória U2058%
×Draw22%
Ponte Preta U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória U20
2.00
Ponte Preta U20
1.10

Vitória U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vitória U20
3.00
Ponte Preta U20
1.60

allows per match

Vitória U20
0.60
Ponte Preta U20
1.00

finishing

Vitória U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vitória U20 or draw
80%
Vitória U20 or Ponte Preta U20
78%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
42%

Winning margin

Vitória U20 wins by 2+
35%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitória U20 1+ goals
86%
Vitória U20 2+ goals
59%
Vitória U20 3+ goals
32%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
67%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
30%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vitória U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória U20 attack 3.00 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.60 + Vitória U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vitória U20 scores more
58%
level
22%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
20%

Vitória U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vitória U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Vitória U20 beat Ponte Preta U20 2-0 in Brasileiro U20 B on May 21, 2025.

Goals: ? (62', 76').

The match was played at CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura in Salvador, Bahia.