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Vitória U20 vs Atlântico U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Vitória U20
Vitória U20
FT
2 – 1
Atlântico U20
Atlântico U20
5/3/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória U2071%
×Draw16%
Atlântico U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória U20
2.68
Atlântico U20
1.07

Vitória U20 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vitória U20
2.80
Atlântico U20
1.43

allows per match

Vitória U20
0.72
Atlântico U20
2.57

finishing

Vitória U20+0.00on par
Atlântico U20+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória U20 ↓

Atlântico U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vitória U20 or draw
87%
Vitória U20 or Atlântico U20
84%
Draw or Atlântico U20
29%

Winning margin

Vitória U20 wins by 2+
50%
Atlântico U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vitória U20 1+ goals
93%
Vitória U20 2+ goals
74%
Vitória U20 3+ goals
49%
Atlântico U20 1+ goals
66%
Atlântico U20 2+ goals
29%
Atlântico U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitória U20 (draw refunded)
85%
Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Atlântico U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória U20 attack 2.80 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.68

Atlântico U20 attack 1.43 + Vitória U20 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vitória U20 scores more
71%
level
16%
Atlântico U20 scores more
13%

Vitória U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Vitória U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória U20 vs Atlântico U20

Vitória U20 beat Atlântico U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura in Salvador, Bahia.