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Vitoria U17 vs Vasco U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vitoria U17
Vitoria U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vasco U17
Vasco U17
6/30/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vitoria U1718%
×Draw22%
Vasco U1759%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria U17
0.93
Vasco U17
1.86

Vasco U17 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vitoria U17
0.25
Vasco U17
1.73

allows per match

Vitoria U17
2.00
Vasco U17
1.60

finishing

Vitoria U17+0.00on par
Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria U17 or draw
41%
Vitoria U17 or Vasco U17
78%
Draw or Vasco U17
82%

Winning margin

Vitoria U17 wins by 2+
6%
Vasco U17 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Vitoria U17 1+ goals
61%
Vitoria U17 2+ goals
24%
Vitoria U17 3+ goals
7%
Vasco U17 1+ goals
84%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
55%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)
24%
Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria U17 attack 0.25 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vitoria U17 scores more
18%
level
22%
Vasco U17 scores more
59%

Vasco U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria U17 vs Vasco U17

Vasco U17 beat Vitoria U17 2-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 30, 2026.