Vitoria U17 1–3 Sao Paulo U17: Result & Stats

Vitoria U17

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sao Paulo U17

7/14/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vitoria U1716%

×Draw23%

Sao Paulo U1762%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria U17Expected goals in this matchSao Paulo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.79

Vitoria U17

0.77

Sao Paulo U17

1.79

Sao Paulo U17 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

0.25

creates per match

1.59

2.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Vitoria U17

0.25

Sao Paulo U17

1.59

allows per match

Vitoria U17

2.00

Sao Paulo U17

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria U17+0.00on par

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vitoria U17 or draw

38%

Vitoria U17 or Sao Paulo U17

77%

Draw or Sao Paulo U17

84%

Winning margin

Vitoria U17 wins by 2+

5%

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Vitoria U17 1+ goals

54%

Vitoria U17 2+ goals

18%

Vitoria U17 3+ goals

4%

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

83%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

53%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)

20%

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria U17 attack 0.25 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.77

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vitoria U17 scores more

16%

level

23%

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

62%

Sao Paulo U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff