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Vitoria Setubal vs Vilar de Perdizes — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilar de Perdizes
Vilar de Perdizes
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vitoria Setubal69%
×Draw19%
Vilar de Perdizes12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
2.10
Vilar de Perdizes
0.74

Vitoria Setubal creates 184% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.20
Vilar de Perdizes
0.67

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.80
Vilar de Perdizes
3.00

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Vilar de Perdizes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Vilar de Perdizes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
88%
Vitoria Setubal or Vilar de Perdizes
81%
Draw or Vilar de Perdizes
31%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
44%
Vilar de Perdizes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
88%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
62%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
35%
Vilar de Perdizes 1+ goals
52%
Vilar de Perdizes 2+ goals
17%
Vilar de Perdizes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
85%
Vilar de Perdizes (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Vilar de Perdizes away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.20 + Vilar de Perdizes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vilar de Perdizes attack 0.67 + Vitoria Setubal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
69%
level
19%
Vilar de Perdizes scores more
12%

Vitoria Setubal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vitoria Setubal 4–0 Vilar de Perdizes

Vitoria Setubal beat Vilar de Perdizes 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.