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Vitoria Setubal vs Santa Clara — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
12/22/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 14Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal38%
×Draw30%
Santa Clara33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.12
Santa Clara
1.02

Vitoria Setubal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Santa Clara
0.92

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Santa Clara
1.35

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
67%
Vitoria Setubal or Santa Clara
70%
Draw or Santa Clara
62%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
15%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
67%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
31%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
10%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
64%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
27%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
54%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.35 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Santa Clara defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Santa Clara attack 0.92 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
38%
level
30%
Santa Clara scores more
33%

Vitoria Setubal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Santa Clara

Santa Clara beat Vitoria Setubal 2-0 in Primeira Liga on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.