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Vitoria Setubal vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
6/23/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 28Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal38%
×Draw29%
Rio Ave33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.17
Rio Ave
1.06

Vitoria Setubal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Rio Ave
1.01

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Rio Ave
1.44

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
67%
Vitoria Setubal or Rio Ave
71%
Draw or Rio Ave
62%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
16%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
33%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
11%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
65%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
29%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
54%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Rio Ave defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rio Ave attack 1.01 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
38%
level
29%
Rio Ave scores more
33%

Vitoria Setubal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vitoria Setubal 1–2 Rio Ave

Rio Ave beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Primeira Liga on June 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.