Vitoria Setubal 1–0 Real: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Vitoria Setubal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real

C. Triana 86'

4/7/2023

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 2Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal41%

×Draw25%

Real34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchReal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.32

Vitoria Setubal

1.48

Real

1.32

Vitoria Setubal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.75

creates per match

1.21

1.43

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.75

Real

1.21

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.43

Real

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

66%

Vitoria Setubal or Real

75%

Draw or Real

59%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

20%

Real wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

77%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

43%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

19%

Real 1+ goals

73%

Real 2+ goals

38%

Real 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

55%

Real (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Real away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Real defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real attack 1.21 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

41%

level

25%

Real scores more

34%

Vitoria Setubal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Dino← Ballack

40'

P. Rosas

46'

Diogo Sequeira← Lourenço Henriques

46'

Daniel Carvalho← Filipe Oliveira

52'

B. Almeida

54'

Zack Blackwell← A. Ibrahim

54'

M. Corr← Bernardo Silva

61'

D. M. Santos

64'

Pedro Pinto← André Santos

71'

Gonçalo Agrelos← Rafa Santos

72'

Mário Mendonça← David Santos

72'

José Varela← Gabriel Lima

72'

Gonçalo Cabral← Marcos Barbeiro

86'

C. Triana

87'

C. Triana

89'

Z. Blackwell

Vitoria

Real

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⚽

Manager: Luís Loureiro

46'▲Diogo Sequeira←▼Lourenço Henriques

46'▲Daniel Carvalho←▼Filipe Oliveira

64'▲Pedro Pinto←▼André Santos

72'▲Mário Mendonça←▼David Santos

72'▲José Varela←▼Gabriel Lima

Vitoria Setubal substitutes

SequeiraCarvalhoPintoMendonçaVarela

Manager: Pedro Saraiva

31'▲Dino←▼Ballack

54'▲Zack Blackwell←▼A. Ibrahim

54'▲M. Corr←▼Bernardo Silva

71'▲Gonçalo Agrelos←▼Rafa Santos

72'▲Gonçalo Cabral←▼Marcos Barbeiro

Real substitutes

DinoBlackwellCorrAgrelosCabral