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Vitoria Setubal vs Pinhalnovense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
11/9/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 6Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vitoria Setubal58%
×Draw21%
Pinhalnovense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
2.10
Pinhalnovense
1.20

Vitoria Setubal creates 75% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
2.20
Pinhalnovense
1.40

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.00
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
79%
Vitoria Setubal or Pinhalnovense
79%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
42%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
35%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
88%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
62%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
35%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
70%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
34%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
73%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.20 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Pinhalnovense attack 1.40 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
58%
level
21%
Pinhalnovense scores more
21%

Vitoria Setubal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Vitoria Setubal 2–1 Pinhalnovense

Vitoria Setubal beat Pinhalnovense 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on November 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.