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Vitoria Setubal vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
10/6/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 7Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal39%
×Draw29%
Moreirense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.17
Moreirense
1.04

Vitoria Setubal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Moreirense
0.97

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Moreirense
1.44

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
68%
Vitoria Setubal or Moreirense
71%
Draw or Moreirense
61%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
16%
Moreirense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
33%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
11%
Moreirense 1+ goals
65%
Moreirense 2+ goals
28%
Moreirense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
55%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Moreirense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Moreirense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Moreirense attack 0.97 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
39%
level
29%
Moreirense scores more
32%

Vitoria Setubal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Moreirense

Vitoria Setubal beat Moreirense 3-0 in Primeira Liga on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.