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Vitoria Setubal vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Famalicao
Famalicao
7/13/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 32Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal36%
×Draw28%
Famalicao35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.17
Famalicao
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.89
Famalicao
1.19

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.11
Famalicao
1.44

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
65%
Vitoria Setubal or Famalicao
72%
Draw or Famalicao
64%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
15%
Famalicao wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
33%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
11%
Famalicao 1+ goals
68%
Famalicao 2+ goals
32%
Famalicao 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
51%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Famalicao defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Famalicao attack 1.19 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
36%
level
28%
Famalicao scores more
35%

Vitoria Setubal at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Famalicao

Famalicao beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Primeira Liga on July 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.