Vitoria Setubal 1–1 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Vitoria Setubal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cova De Piedade

12/4/2021

Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vitoria Setubal46%

×Draw25%

Cova De Piedade29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Vitoria Setubal

1.59

Cova De Piedade

1.21

Vitoria Setubal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.43

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.75

Cova De Piedade

1.00

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.43

Cova De Piedade

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

71%

Vitoria Setubal or Cova De Piedade

75%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

54%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

24%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

80%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

47%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

21%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

70%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

34%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

61%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

46%

level

25%

Cova De Piedade scores more

29%

Vitoria Setubal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff