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Vitoria Setubal vs Caldas — Liga 3 2021

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Caldas
Caldas
9/17/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vitoria Setubal44%
×Draw25%
Caldas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.59
Caldas
1.29

Vitoria Setubal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 70 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.75
Caldas
1.16

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.43
Caldas
1.43

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
69%
Vitoria Setubal or Caldas
75%
Draw or Caldas
56%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
23%
Caldas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
80%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
47%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
21%
Caldas 1+ goals
72%
Caldas 2+ goals
37%
Caldas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
59%
Caldas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Caldas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.75 + Caldas defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Caldas attack 1.16 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
44%
level
25%
Caldas scores more
31%

Vitoria Setubal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Vitoria Setubal 1–2 Caldas

Caldas beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1 in Liga 3 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.