Vitoria Setubal 2–0 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Vitoria Setubal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belenenses

7/26/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 34Estádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vitoria Setubal41%

×Draw30%

Belenenses29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria SetubalExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

Vitoria Setubal

1.15

Belenenses

0.92

Vitoria Setubal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

0.89

creates per match

0.72

1.11

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal

0.89

Belenenses

0.72

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal

1.11

Belenenses

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw

71%

Vitoria Setubal or Belenenses

70%

Draw or Belenenses

59%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

17%

Belenenses wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

68%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

32%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

11%

Belenenses 1+ goals

60%

Belenenses 2+ goals

23%

Belenenses 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

58%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more

41%

level

30%

Belenenses scores more

29%

Vitoria Setubal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff