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Vitoria Setubal vs Academico Viseu — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
FT
0 – 1
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
10/28/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vitoria Setubal30%
×Draw26%
Academico Viseu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Setubal
1.15
Academico Viseu
1.45

Academico Viseu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vitoria Setubal
1.20
Academico Viseu
2.10

allows per match

Vitoria Setubal
0.80
Academico Viseu
1.10

finishing

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Setubal ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vitoria Setubal or draw
56%
Vitoria Setubal or Academico Viseu
74%
Draw or Academico Viseu
70%

Winning margin

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
12%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
68%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
11%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
77%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
42%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
41%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Setubal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Setubal attack 1.20 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Vitoria Setubal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vitoria Setubal scores more
30%
level
26%
Academico Viseu scores more
44%

Academico Viseu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Setubal vs Academico Viseu

Academico Viseu beat Vitoria Setubal 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bonfim in Setúbal.