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Vitória PE W vs Vitória BA W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
7/17/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória PE W63%
×Draw20%
Vitória BA W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória PE W
2.11
Vitória BA W
0.99

Vitória PE W creates 113% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vitória PE W
1.57
Vitória BA W
0.70

allows per match

Vitória PE W
1.29
Vitória BA W
2.65

finishing

Vitória PE W+0.00on par
Vitória BA W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória PE W ↓

Vitória BA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vitória PE W or draw
83%
Vitória PE W or Vitória BA W
80%
Draw or Vitória BA W
37%

Winning margin

Vitória PE W wins by 2+
39%
Vitória BA W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vitória PE W 1+ goals
88%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
62%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
35%
Vitória BA W 1+ goals
63%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
26%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
79%
Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória PE W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Vitória BA W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória PE W attack 1.57 + Vitória BA W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.11

Vitória BA W attack 0.70 + Vitória PE W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vitória PE W scores more
63%
level
20%
Vitória BA W scores more
17%

Vitória PE W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vitória PE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória PE W vs Vitória BA W

Vitória BA W beat Vitória PE W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco).