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Vitória PE W vs Sport Recife W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
7/28/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória PE W65%
×Draw19%
Sport Recife W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória PE W
2.27
Sport Recife W
1.04

Vitória PE W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vitória PE W
1.57
Sport Recife W
0.78

allows per match

Vitória PE W
1.29
Sport Recife W
2.96

finishing

Vitória PE W+0.00on par
Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória PE W ↓

Sport Recife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vitória PE W or draw
84%
Vitória PE W or Sport Recife W
81%
Draw or Sport Recife W
35%

Winning margin

Vitória PE W wins by 2+
42%
Sport Recife W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vitória PE W 1+ goals
90%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
66%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
39%
Sport Recife W 1+ goals
65%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
28%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
80%
Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória PE W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória PE W attack 1.57 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Vitória PE W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vitória PE W scores more
65%
level
19%
Sport Recife W scores more
16%

Vitória PE W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vitória PE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Vitória PE W 5–1 Sport Recife W

Vitória PE W beat Sport Recife W 5-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco).