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Vitória PE W vs Sao Francisco W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
4/25/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória PE W74%
×Draw15%
Sao Francisco W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória PE W
2.69
Sao Francisco W
0.91

Vitória PE W creates 196% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vitória PE W
1.57
Sao Francisco W
0.53

allows per match

Vitória PE W
1.29
Sao Francisco W
3.80

finishing

Vitória PE W+0.00on par
Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória PE W ↓

Sao Francisco W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vitória PE W or draw
90%
Vitória PE W or Sao Francisco W
85%
Draw or Sao Francisco W
26%

Winning margin

Vitória PE W wins by 2+
53%
Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vitória PE W 1+ goals
93%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
74%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
49%
Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
60%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
23%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
88%
Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória PE W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sao Francisco W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória PE W attack 1.57 + Sao Francisco W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.69

Sao Francisco W attack 0.53 + Vitória PE W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vitória PE W scores more
74%
level
15%
Sao Francisco W scores more
10%

Vitória PE W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vitória PE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Vitória PE W 3–1 Sao Francisco W

Vitória PE W beat Sao Francisco W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco).