Vitória PE W 1–1 Minas ICESP W: Result & Stats

Vitória PE W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Minas ICESP W

Girlane Maria 56'

Nycole Raysla 90'

4/10/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória PE W55%

×Draw24%

Minas ICESP W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitória PE WExpected goals in this matchMinas ICESP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.96

Vitória PE W

1.70

Minas ICESP W

0.96

Vitória PE W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

0.63

1.29

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vitória PE W

1.57

Minas ICESP W

0.63

allows per match

Vitória PE W

1.29

Minas ICESP W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitória PE W+0.00on par

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória PE W ↓

Minas ICESP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vitória PE W or draw

79%

Vitória PE W or Minas ICESP W

76%

Draw or Minas ICESP W

45%

Winning margin

Vitória PE W wins by 2+

30%

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vitória PE W 1+ goals

82%

Vitória PE W 2+ goals

51%

Vitória PE W 3+ goals

24%

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals

62%

Minas ICESP W 2+ goals

25%

Minas ICESP W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)

72%

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória PE W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória PE W attack 1.57 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Vitória PE W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vitória PE W scores more

55%

level

24%

Minas ICESP W scores more

21%

Vitória PE W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vitória PE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Girlane Maria

59'

Beatriz← Beatriz

64'

Laíssa← Laíssa

67'

Rayane← Rayane

72'

Marcela← Marcela

90'

Nycole Raysla

Vitória

Minas

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

72'▲—←▼Marcela

Vitória PE W substitutes

PaulaTaináClaudinhaCynthiaLauraLeleVivian

59'▲—←▼Beatriz

64'▲—←▼Laíssa

67'▲—←▼Rayane

Minas ICESP W substitutes

EllenKamilaPaulaAdelayneKeylaLuiaraSuzana

Brasileiro Women: Vitória PE W 1–1 Minas ICESP W

Vitória PE W and Minas ICESP W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 10, 2019.

Goals: Girlane Maria (56'), Nycole Raysla (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ewerson Simões Barbosa (Chã Grande, Pernambuco).

Vitória PE W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Vitória PE W 1–1 Minas ICESP W