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Vitória PE W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
3/17/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitória PE W38%
×Draw25%
Internacional RS W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória PE W
1.42
Internacional RS W
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 64 away

creates per match

Vitória PE W
1.57
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Vitória PE W
1.29
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Vitória PE W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória PE W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vitória PE W or draw
63%
Vitória PE W or Internacional RS W
75%
Draw or Internacional RS W
62%

Winning margin

Vitória PE W wins by 2+
18%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vitória PE W 1+ goals
76%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
41%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
17%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
75%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
40%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
51%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória PE W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória PE W attack 1.57 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Vitória PE W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitória PE W scores more
38%
level
25%
Internacional RS W scores more
37%

Vitória PE W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitória PE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Vitória PE W 0–5 Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Vitória PE W 5-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco).