Vitoria Guimaraes W 1–5 SL Benfica W

Vitoria Guimaraes W

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

SL Benfica W

9/21/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 2Academia Vitoria SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W12%

×Draw19%

SL Benfica W68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Guimaraes WExpected goals in this matchSL Benfica W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.10

Vitoria Guimaraes W

0.75

SL Benfica W

2.10

SL Benfica W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

3.10

1.11

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W

1.00

SL Benfica W

3.10

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W

1.11

SL Benfica W

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par

SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes W ↓

SL Benfica W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw

32%

Vitoria Guimaraes W or SL Benfica W

81%

Draw or SL Benfica W

88%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+

3%

SL Benfica W wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals

53%

Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals

17%

Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals

4%

SL Benfica W 1+ goals

88%

SL Benfica W 2+ goals

62%

SL Benfica W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)

15%

SL Benfica W (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

SL Benfica W away — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 1.00 + SL Benfica W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

SL Benfica W attack 3.10 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more

12%

level

19%

SL Benfica W scores more

68%

SL Benfica W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SL Benfica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff