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Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Racing Power W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Vitoria Guimaraes W
Vitoria Guimaraes W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Power W
Racing Power W
2/21/20261a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W33%
×Draw33%
Racing Power W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Guimaraes W
0.89
Racing Power W
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.00
Racing Power W
0.67

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W
1.11
Racing Power W
0.78

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par
Racing Power W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes W ↓

Racing Power W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw
67%
Vitoria Guimaraes W or Racing Power W
67%
Draw or Racing Power W
67%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+
12%
Racing Power W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals
59%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals
22%
Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals
6%
Racing Power W 1+ goals
59%
Racing Power W 2+ goals
22%
Racing Power W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)
50%
Racing Power W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Racing Power W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 1.00 + Racing Power W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Racing Power W attack 0.67 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more
33%
level
33%
Racing Power W scores more
33%

Vitoria Guimaraes W at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Vitoria Guimaraes W 0–1 Racing Power W

Racing Power W beat Vitoria Guimaraes W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on February 21, 2026.