Vitoria Guimaraes W 3–1 Damaiense W: Result & Stats

Vitoria Guimaraes W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Damaiense W

11/1/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 5Academia Vitoria SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes W43%

×Draw26%

Damaiense W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Guimaraes WExpected goals in this matchDamaiense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Vitoria Guimaraes W

1.43

Damaiense W

1.15

Vitoria Guimaraes W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

1.19

1.11

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W

1.00

Damaiense W

1.19

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes W

1.11

Damaiense W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes W+0.00on par

Damaiense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes W ↓

Damaiense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes W or draw

70%

Vitoria Guimaraes W or Damaiense W

74%

Draw or Damaiense W

57%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes W wins by 2+

21%

Damaiense W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes W 1+ goals

76%

Vitoria Guimaraes W 2+ goals

42%

Vitoria Guimaraes W 3+ goals

17%

Damaiense W 1+ goals

68%

Damaiense W 2+ goals

32%

Damaiense W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes W (draw refunded)

59%

Damaiense W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Damaiense W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes W attack 1.00 + Damaiense W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Damaiense W attack 1.19 + Vitoria Guimaraes W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes W scores more

43%

level

26%

Damaiense W scores more

30%

Vitoria Guimaraes W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff