Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2–0 Feirense U19

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Feirense U19

8/18/2024

League #1041 · Round 3Campo 6 Complexo Desportivo Dr. António Pimenta Machado Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vitoria Guimaraes U1948%

×Draw26%

Feirense U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19Expected goals in this matchFeirense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.02

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

1.49

Feirense U19

1.02

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

0.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

1.60

Feirense U19

1.23

allows per match

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

0.80

Feirense U19

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Guimaraes U19+0.00on par

Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or draw

74%

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or Feirense U19

74%

Draw or Feirense U19

52%

Winning margin

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 wins by 2+

24%

Feirense U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 1+ goals

77%

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 2+ goals

44%

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 3+ goals

19%

Feirense U19 1+ goals

64%

Feirense U19 2+ goals

27%

Feirense U19 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 attack 1.60 + Feirense U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Vitoria Guimaraes U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 scores more

48%

level

26%

Feirense U19 scores more

26%

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vitoria Guimaraes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff