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Vitória ES vs Sport Brasil ES — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Vitória ES
Vitória ES
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Brasil ES
Sport Brasil ES
Marcudinho 90+2'
W. Damasceno 49'
Patrick Carvalho 36'
6/15/2024Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vitória ES74%
×Draw17%
Sport Brasil ES9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória ES
2.25
Sport Brasil ES
0.65

Vitória ES creates 246% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vitória ES
1.95
Sport Brasil ES
0.62

allows per match

Vitória ES
0.67
Sport Brasil ES
2.54

finishing

Vitória ES+0.00on par
Sport Brasil ES+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória ES ↓

Sport Brasil ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vitória ES or draw
91%
Vitória ES or Sport Brasil ES
83%
Draw or Sport Brasil ES
26%

Winning margin

Vitória ES wins by 2+
49%
Sport Brasil ES wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vitória ES 1+ goals
89%
Vitória ES 2+ goals
65%
Vitória ES 3+ goals
39%
Sport Brasil ES 1+ goals
48%
Sport Brasil ES 2+ goals
14%
Sport Brasil ES 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vitória ES (draw refunded)
89%
Sport Brasil ES (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória ES at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.67 · 21 matches

Sport Brasil ES away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória ES attack 1.95 + Sport Brasil ES defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sport Brasil ES attack 0.62 + Vitória ES defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vitória ES scores more
74%
level
17%
Sport Brasil ES scores more
9%

Vitória ES at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vitória ES will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Patrick Carvalho
49'
W. Damasceno
90+2'
Marcudinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória ES vs Sport Brasil ES

Vitória ES beat Sport Brasil ES 3-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Patrick Carvalho (36'), W. Damasceno (49'), Marcudinho (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Salvador Venâncio da Costa in Vitória, Espírito Santo.