Vitória de Sernache 1–0 UD da Serra: Result & Stats

Vitória de Sernache

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UD da Serra

9/28/2025

League #459 · Group C - 5Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vitória de Sernache60%

×Draw24%

UD da Serra16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitória de SernacheExpected goals in this matchUD da Serra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.71

Vitória de Sernache

1.65

UD da Serra

0.71

Vitória de Sernache creates 132% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

1.09

0.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Vitória de Sernache

1.67

UD da Serra

1.09

allows per match

Vitória de Sernache

0.33

UD da Serra

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

UD da Serra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória de Sernache ↓

UD da Serra →

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vitória de Sernache or draw

84%

Vitória de Sernache or UD da Serra

76%

Draw or UD da Serra

40%

Winning margin

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

33%

UD da Serra wins by 2+

Team goals

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

81%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

49%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

23%

UD da Serra 1+ goals

51%

UD da Serra 2+ goals

16%

UD da Serra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

79%

UD da Serra (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitória de Sernache at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

UD da Serra away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.67 + UD da Serra defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

UD da Serra attack 1.09 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vitória de Sernache scores more

60%

level

24%

UD da Serra scores more

16%

Vitória de Sernache at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff