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Vitória de Sernache vs Fabril Barreiro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
FT
0 – 2
Fabril Barreiro
Fabril Barreiro
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vitória de Sernache23%
×Draw27%
Fabril Barreiro50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória de Sernache
0.89
Fabril Barreiro
1.43

Fabril Barreiro creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vitória de Sernache
0.57
Fabril Barreiro
1.00

allows per match

Vitória de Sernache
1.86
Fabril Barreiro
1.20

finishing

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par
Fabril Barreiro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória de Sernache ↓

Fabril Barreiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vitória de Sernache or draw
50%
Vitória de Sernache or Fabril Barreiro
73%
Draw or Fabril Barreiro
77%

Winning margin

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
8%
Fabril Barreiro wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
59%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
22%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
6%
Fabril Barreiro 1+ goals
76%
Fabril Barreiro 2+ goals
42%
Fabril Barreiro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
32%
Fabril Barreiro (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória de Sernache at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Fabril Barreiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória de Sernache attack 0.57 + Fabril Barreiro defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Fabril Barreiro attack 1.00 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vitória de Sernache scores more
23%
level
27%
Fabril Barreiro scores more
50%

Fabril Barreiro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fabril Barreiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vitória de Sernache 0–2 Fabril Barreiro

Fabril Barreiro beat Vitória de Sernache 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira in Cernache do Bonjardim.