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Vitoria Das Tab. W vs Ponte Preta W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
8/22/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W45%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.66
Ponte Preta W
1.36

Vitoria Das Tab. W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.00
Ponte Preta W
0.59

allows per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.14
Ponte Preta W
2.32

finishing

Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par
Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Das Tab. W ↓

Ponte Preta W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vitoria Das Tab. W or draw
68%
Vitoria Das Tab. W or Ponte Preta W
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta W
55%

Winning margin

Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
23%
Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
81%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
49%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
23%
Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
74%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
39%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
59%
Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Das Tab. W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 1.00 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
45%
level
24%
Ponte Preta W scores more
32%

Vitoria Das Tab. W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria Das Tab. W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Vitoria Das Tab. W 3–2 Ponte Preta W

Vitoria Das Tab. W beat Ponte Preta W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on August 22, 2018.