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Vitoria Das Tab. W vs Foz Cataratas W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Foz Cataratas W
Foz Cataratas W
6/26/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W28%
×Draw25%
Foz Cataratas W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.15
Foz Cataratas W
1.57

Foz Cataratas W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
1.00
Foz Cataratas W
1.00

allows per match

Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.14
Foz Cataratas W
1.29

finishing

Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par
Foz Cataratas W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Das Tab. W ↓

Foz Cataratas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitoria Das Tab. W or draw
53%
Vitoria Das Tab. W or Foz Cataratas W
75%
Draw or Foz Cataratas W
72%

Winning margin

Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
11%
Foz Cataratas W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
68%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
11%
Foz Cataratas W 1+ goals
79%
Foz Cataratas W 2+ goals
46%
Foz Cataratas W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
37%
Foz Cataratas W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Das Tab. W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Foz Cataratas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 1.00 + Foz Cataratas W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Foz Cataratas W attack 1.00 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
28%
level
25%
Foz Cataratas W scores more
47%

Foz Cataratas W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Foz Cataratas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Das Tab. W vs Foz Cataratas W

Vitoria Das Tab. W and Foz Cataratas W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on June 26, 2018.