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Vitoria Da Conquista vs UNIRB — Baiano - 2 2019

Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
FT
1 – 1
UNIRB
UNIRB
6/4/2023Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vitoria Da Conquista39%
×Draw31%
UNIRB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Da Conquista
1.08
UNIRB
0.90

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vitoria Da Conquista
1.00
UNIRB
0.58

allows per match

Vitoria Da Conquista
1.21
UNIRB
1.17

finishing

Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par
UNIRB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Da Conquista ↓

UNIRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vitoria Da Conquista or draw
70%
Vitoria Da Conquista or UNIRB
69%
Draw or UNIRB
61%

Winning margin

Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
16%
UNIRB wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
66%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
29%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
10%
UNIRB 1+ goals
59%
UNIRB 2+ goals
23%
UNIRB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
57%
UNIRB (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Da Conquista at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

UNIRB away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.00 + UNIRB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

UNIRB attack 0.58 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
39%
level
31%
UNIRB scores more
30%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria Da Conquista vs UNIRB

Vitoria Da Conquista and UNIRB drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.