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Vitoria Da Conquista vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
6/12/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vitoria Da Conquista24%
×Draw27%
Colo Colo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria Da Conquista
0.91
Colo Colo
1.40

Colo Colo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vitoria Da Conquista
1.00
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Vitoria Da Conquista
1.21
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Da Conquista ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitoria Da Conquista or draw
52%
Vitoria Da Conquista or Colo Colo
73%
Draw or Colo Colo
76%

Winning margin

Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
8%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
60%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
23%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
6%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
75%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
41%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
34%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Da Conquista at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.00 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
24%
level
27%
Colo Colo scores more
48%

Colo Colo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Vitoria Da Conquista 0–1 Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Vitoria Da Conquista 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.