Vitoria Da Conquista 1–1 Central SC: Result & Stats

Vitoria Da Conquista

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Central SC

Natan 16'

Jeffinho 79' (pen)

10/31/2020

Serie D · Round 10Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vitoria Da Conquista41%

×Draw27%

Central SC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitoria Da ConquistaExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.32

Central SC

1.11

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 37 away

1.69

creates per match

0.84

1.38

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.69

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.38

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria Da Conquista ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vitoria Da Conquista or draw

69%

Vitoria Da Conquista or Central SC

73%

Draw or Central SC

59%

Winning margin

Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+

19%

Central SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals

73%

Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals

38%

Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals

15%

Central SC 1+ goals

67%

Central SC 2+ goals

30%

Central SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)

57%

Central SC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria Da Conquista at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.69 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Central SC attack 0.84 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vitoria Da Conquista scores more

41%

level

27%

Central SC scores more

31%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Natan← Douglas Washington

16'

Natan

46'

Robson← Hebert

64'

Euller← Joelson

64'

Gustavo Henrique← Fernando Pires

64'

Janelson← Gleidson

71'

Victor← Abu

76'

Jeffinho← Leandro

79'

JeffinhoPenalty

81'

Robinho← Rodrigo

Vitoria

Central

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Elias Borges

11'▲Natan←▼Douglas Washington

71'▲Victor←▼Abu

81'▲Robinho←▼Rodrigo

Vitoria Da Conquista substitutes

NatanVictorRobinhoKauanEdimarJefersonLucasLucasPedroRoniVictorVinícius

Manager: Silvio Criciúma

46'▲Robson←▼Hebert

64'▲Euller←▼Joelson

64'▲Gustavo Henrique←▼Fernando Pires

64'▲Janelson←▼Gleidson

76'▲Jeffinho←▼Leandro

Central SC substitutes

RobsonEullerHenriqueJanelsonJeffinhoGideãoWendel

Serie D: Vitoria Da Conquista 1–1 Central SC

Vitoria Da Conquista and Central SC drew 1-1 in Serie D on October 31, 2020.

Goals: Natan (16'), Jeffinho (79' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.

Vitoria Da Conquista vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Vitoria Da Conquista 1–1 Central SC