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Vitória da Conquista U20 vs Barcelona BA U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
FT
4 – 1
Barcelona BA U20
Barcelona BA U20
3/17/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Edvaldo Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vitória da Conquista U2052%
×Draw25%
Barcelona BA U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.60
Barcelona BA U20
0.96

Vitória da Conquista U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
1.71
Barcelona BA U20
1.05

allows per match

Vitória da Conquista U20
0.86
Barcelona BA U20
1.50

finishing

Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par
Barcelona BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitória da Conquista U20 ↓

Barcelona BA U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vitória da Conquista U20 or draw
77%
Vitória da Conquista U20 or Barcelona BA U20
75%
Draw or Barcelona BA U20
48%

Winning margin

Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
28%
Barcelona BA U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
80%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
47%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
22%
Barcelona BA U20 1+ goals
62%
Barcelona BA U20 2+ goals
25%
Barcelona BA U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
70%
Barcelona BA U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitória da Conquista U20 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Barcelona BA U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.71 + Barcelona BA U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Barcelona BA U20 attack 1.05 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
52%
level
25%
Barcelona BA U20 scores more
23%

Vitória da Conquista U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitória da Conquista U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitória da Conquista U20 vs Barcelona BA U20

Vitória da Conquista U20 beat Barcelona BA U20 4-1 in Baiano U20 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Edvaldo Flores in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.