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Barcelona BA U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Barcelona BA U20
Barcelona BA U20
FT
3 – 1
Vitória da Conquista U20
Vitória da Conquista U20
5/18/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Barcelona BA U2047%
×Draw25%
Vitória da Conquista U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA U20
1.54
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.13

Barcelona BA U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA U20
1.62
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.15

allows per match

Barcelona BA U20
1.10
Vitória da Conquista U20
1.45

finishing

Barcelona BA U20+0.00on par
Vitória da Conquista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA U20 ↓

Vitória da Conquista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barcelona BA U20 or draw
72%
Barcelona BA U20 or Vitória da Conquista U20
75%
Draw or Vitória da Conquista U20
53%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA U20 wins by 2+
24%
Vitória da Conquista U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barcelona BA U20 1+ goals
79%
Barcelona BA U20 2+ goals
45%
Barcelona BA U20 3+ goals
20%
Vitória da Conquista U20 1+ goals
68%
Vitória da Conquista U20 2+ goals
31%
Vitória da Conquista U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Vitória da Conquista U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA U20 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Vitória da Conquista U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA U20 attack 1.62 + Vitória da Conquista U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vitória da Conquista U20 attack 1.15 + Barcelona BA U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona BA U20 scores more
47%
level
25%
Vitória da Conquista U20 scores more
28%

Barcelona BA U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona BA U20 vs Vitória da Conquista U20

Barcelona BA U20 beat Vitória da Conquista U20 3-1 in Baiano U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.