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Vítkovice vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Vítkovice
Vítkovice
FT
1 – 2
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
9/11/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Tréninkové centrum Vítek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vítkovice65%
×Draw18%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vítkovice
2.42
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.15

Vítkovice creates 110% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vítkovice
2.13
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Vítkovice
1.40
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw
83%
Vítkovice or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
82%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
35%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+
43%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals
91%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
69%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
43%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
68%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
32%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)
80%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 47 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 2.13 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Vítkovice defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vítkovice scores more
65%
level
18%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
17%

Vítkovice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Vítkovice 1–2 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál beat Vítkovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Tréninkové centrum Vítek in Ostrava-Hrabůvka.