Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vítkovice vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Vítkovice
Vítkovice
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Opava II
Opava II
6/8/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 29Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vítkovice47%
×Draw23%
Opava II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vítkovice
1.87
Opava II
1.46

Vítkovice creates 28% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

Vítkovice
2.13
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Vítkovice
1.40
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Vítkovice+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vítkovice ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vítkovice or draw
70%
Vítkovice or Opava II
77%
Draw or Opava II
53%

Winning margin

Vítkovice wins by 2+
26%
Opava II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vítkovice 1+ goals
85%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
56%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
29%
Opava II 1+ goals
77%
Opava II 2+ goals
43%
Opava II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vítkovice (draw refunded)
61%
Opava II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vítkovice at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 47 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vítkovice attack 2.13 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

Opava II attack 1.51 + Vítkovice defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vítkovice scores more
47%
level
23%
Opava II scores more
30%

Vítkovice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vítkovice vs Opava II

Vítkovice beat Opava II 8-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.