Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vitez vs Igman Konjic — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vitez
Vitez
FT
1 – 0
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
11/10/20181st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · Round 14Gradski Stadion (Vitez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vitez42%
×Draw29%
Igman Konjic29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitez
1.23
Igman Konjic
0.96

Vitez creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vitez
1.07
Igman Konjic
0.98

allows per match

Vitez
0.93
Igman Konjic
1.39

finishing

Vitez+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitez ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitez or draw
71%
Vitez or Igman Konjic
71%
Draw or Igman Konjic
58%

Winning margin

Vitez wins by 2+
19%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitez 1+ goals
71%
Vitez 2+ goals
35%
Vitez 3+ goals
13%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
62%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
25%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vitez (draw refunded)
60%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitez at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitez attack 1.07 + Igman Konjic defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Igman Konjic attack 0.98 + Vitez defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vitez scores more
42%
level
29%
Igman Konjic scores more
29%

Vitez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Vitez 1–0 Igman Konjic

Vitez beat Igman Konjic 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Vitez).