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Vitez vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vitez
Vitez
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Čelik
Čelik
A. Masic 89'
N. Sero 53'
H. Vardo 27'
5/3/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vitez39%
×Draw29%
Čelik32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitez
1.16
Čelik
1.03

Vitez creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vitez
1.07
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Vitez
0.93
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Vitez+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitez ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitez or draw
68%
Vitez or Čelik
71%
Draw or Čelik
61%

Winning margin

Vitez wins by 2+
16%
Čelik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitez 1+ goals
69%
Vitez 2+ goals
32%
Vitez 3+ goals
11%
Čelik 1+ goals
64%
Čelik 2+ goals
28%
Čelik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitez (draw refunded)
55%
Čelik (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitez at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitez attack 1.07 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Čelik attack 1.14 + Vitez defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vitez scores more
39%
level
29%
Čelik scores more
32%

Vitez at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
H. Vardo
53'
N. Sero
89'
A. Masic
Vitez
Čelik
I. Bonić
Manager: I. Bonić
N. Hukić
Manager: N. Hukić

Match Recap: Vitez vs Čelik

Čelik beat Vitez 3-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 3, 2026.

Goals: H. Vardo (27'), N. Sero (53'), A. Masic (89').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vitez.