Vitesse 2–0 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Vitesse

AET

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Utrecht

5/22/2022

Eredivisie · Europa League Play-offs - Semi-finalsGelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Vitesse40%

×Draw24%

Utrecht36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.48

Vitesse

1.56

Utrecht

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 136 away

1.57

creates per match

1.56

1.39

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Vitesse

1.57

Utrecht

1.56

allows per match

Vitesse

1.39

Utrecht

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par

Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

64%

Vitesse or Utrecht

76%

Draw or Utrecht

60%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

20%

Utrecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

79%

Vitesse 2+ goals

46%

Vitesse 3+ goals

21%

Utrecht 1+ goals

77%

Utrecht 2+ goals

43%

Utrecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

52%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.39 · 101 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.57 + Utrecht defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Utrecht attack 1.56 + Vitesse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vitesse scores more

40%

level

24%

Utrecht scores more

36%

Vitesse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff