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Vitesse vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
12/10/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 15GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Vitesse55%
×Draw23%
Heracles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
1.85
Heracles
1.09

Vitesse creates 70% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 117 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.57
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

Vitesse
1.39
Heracles
2.12

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
78%
Vitesse or Heracles
77%
Draw or Heracles
45%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
31%
Heracles wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
84%
Vitesse 2+ goals
55%
Vitesse 3+ goals
28%
Heracles 1+ goals
66%
Heracles 2+ goals
30%
Heracles 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
71%
Heracles (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.39 · 101 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.57 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Heracles attack 0.79 + Vitesse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vitesse scores more
55%
level
23%
Heracles scores more
22%

Vitesse at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Vitesse 2–0 Heracles

Vitesse beat Heracles 2-0 in Eredivisie on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.